Aiden Wright is a Pricing Analyst for Mintec, they perform pricing and industry analysis. In their own words, “Through our data and online analytics tools, we deliver increased price visibility, improved budget management, & greater spend control to the world’s largest brands.” For the purposes of this article, we are only going to look at a small amount of products that they analyze. Specifically, the nut industry including peanuts, almonds, and cashews.
Table of Contents
Historical Almond Pricing | 2018 – 2021
The yellow line is called the Baseline Industrial Grade. The yellow line is always going to be the lowest price. That is the underpinning price which moves the market. You can see a very large decline. In terms of benefits, almond have seen record shipments coming through. We have seen as prices decline since just before the start of the Covid pandemic. The other lines look at varying grades of almonds. So, you’ll see smaller size, 27 -30’s, or the blue line, having shifted down. While there has been only a slight shift downward for 23-25, or the red line, which are larger almonds. You can see the difference between the 23-25 and the 27-30 widening significantly over the months of 2021.
Despite the largest crop in history, you can see the larger kernel size remained more expensive over the small kernels. When the almond trees are bearing, increased yield in terms of the number of nuts will then impact the kernel sizes. We will see some of those prices come down on the larger sizes eventually. The average sizes are usually the larger 23-25 but now we will be seeing more smaller sizes 25-27 and 27-30 on the market going forward.
Almond Demand for 2021 and 2022
Demand has been very good. We had record shipments for this point in the season. Up 20% and really almost every single month with the exception of January. There is a need for these record shipments while the crop continues to grow. Looking like a crop of 3 billion pounds to move. It has never been seen this size before.
The sales are going to price-sensitive markets. They are India and China. India has seen a 57% uplift. China has seen a 67% uplift. You normally wouldn’t see this rise if the prices were higher. That is really what needs to come across here. A lot of this demand is driven by the low pricing. The expectation from the market is that this trend is going to continue. Everyone’s expecting record shipments. 650 tons would still put us at a significant size of exporting America to India and China.
Three Trends In Almond Supply
Aiden Wright, from his work at Mintec, is expecting around 2.5 billion pounds of almonds which is lower than the 3.2 figure that the USDA is expecting. Customers still aren’t quite buying into this USDA figure. California is in the middle of an intense drought. This is why buyers are working to firm up almond prices now because they see that the USDA estimates look inflated. The Growers at the same time they still see an upcoming surplus. Since India and China are absorbing this crop, they want to get in now with the lower prices.
Growers in America believe that all these factors lead to higher prices for almonds. They want to wait. They want to let those phones ring a little longer before committing to prices. The Growers are holding onto their surpluses as long as they can before committing to selling prices. Customers want this crop to move out of California at the current prices but they are finding that difficult.
Historical Cashew Pricing | 2015 – 2021
Cashew pricing was hit quite hard by the pandemic. Unlike the almonds business. Pricing is currently up, well above the price from the start of the pandemic lockdown in March.
You can see from the graph above that there was a split between the whole cashews and the pieces of cashews. The pandemic made this difference even wider. The industrial or bits and pieces market took a heavy fall in price. This was a 10-year-low for all cashew products. This dip has everything to do with the loss of the industrial demand. Think about this, cashews have taken over pine nuts in pesto recipes due to price. The pandemic took down all that cashew pesto that was being made in restaurants overnight.
Manufacturers have started to reopen. Helping rise prices with the Spring and Summer of 2021. Aiden Wright sees that the cashew prices have stabilized and will stay at this level for cashew wholes and pieces. Vietnam is the second largest supplier of cashews in the world. They offered some discounts as a way to really help drive sales of theur product. Getting some of that lost pandemic cash flow back into the market South Asian market.
Increased Cost In Vietnam Of Cashews From Africa
Vietnam acts as a global processing hub for the cashew industry. is quite difficult to deal with Vietnam and Cambodia but they also impose significant amounts from Africa and generally worldwide and that’s what we’re saying at the moment is the crops from the Ivory Coast that so think so I should get them into the country when they’re going to be coming the line processes and looking at significantly higher shipping face which is driving the actual prices if I’m all she end up words even if everything was the same and given that there are actually expecting a lot of row cashing up for election this year Pi most country stop brings us to what people are expecting over the next few months so in terms of demand coming from Europe from the US from love these are the bar and Hobbes they’re expecting good tomorrow moving forward and demands the whole crate statue made pretty consistent throughout this entire process we’ve seen really good sales that’s been strong shipments out Vietnam when you look at Vietnamese custom figures it’s just a trade good it in his demand for snacking is really been driving or say we heard of an uplift and Retail pot since back in. And I think that’s something that people are expecting to remind especially given that full body as prices are still at historical lows so it’s still quite attractive at the same time you seeing some of these industrial that uses to split some fajitas I’m kind of actually come back into the market. Stand up as well and there is generally a bit of more demand for some of these broken bride anyway what we saw during the early early times when the process of Berry live is people it cell forward so now that deliver against these contracts and prices at remove dock on the streets when see a lot of people are blending I’m in terms of pushing it too much tolerance to split the broken try and keep some of those 3-23-20 back Abby Oaks element slug high price globally in terms of the cashew nut crunch berries Suppose there is expected to be last season and on the agents are the things that’s been some quality issues observed in the RCN coming from Vietnam and Cambodia moving forward as we mentioned on the previous slide right is the real sticking point here that’s where we find in these big issues in terms of row passionate person has been rising for Wally to moving up on these clothes he can sense people have a reason prices in the same extent as in terms of reaching that cut the power to the point where they making good money at a loss of a husband down Sprite in the cost of Oz of increase so much they haven’t been able to negotiate upwards soap right to remain the most expensive and the most difficult Wesley secure containers on so it’s definitely going to be